It really depends on the individual and how they feel about their actual runs.. I just looked at the results for my local marathon results for 2022.
- In person times ranged from 1 hour and 14 minutes to 4 hours and 39 minutes.
- Virtual results - 1 hour and 31 minutes and 3 hours and 15 minutes.
When I did my first in person race, I ended up joining the pace group based on the distance of my longest timed run and estimated how long it would take for the actual distance.
Youll find that your timing will be different for an in person race to a virtual run